Senate Polls in Red States Show Democrats Competitive

ELECTION 2026Democrats are running closer than expected in places that rarely favor them. The newest Senate polls in red states show the party ahead or within reach in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas, all of which backed President Donald Trump by 11 to 16 points in 2024. New York Times/Siena surveys released on Oct. 3 added to a month of encouraging results for Democrats, but Election Day on Nov. 3 is still weeks away.

What the Latest Senate Polls in Red States Show

The Times/Siena results come from five separate state surveys. Democrats lead in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, the Kansas race is tied, and Hinson holds a narrow edge over Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa.

Taken together with other nonpartisan surveys since Labor Day, the numbers point to a competitive map. A Democratic path to a Senate majority would still require a net gain of four seats, according to Fox News reporting on the Ohio race, so strong results in several Republican-held states matter.

Texas: A Lead Despite Heavy Spending

The widest Democratic lead outside Alaska is in Texas, where state Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points in the Times/Siena poll. The seat is now held by Sen. John Cornyn. The survey found Trump’s approval among likely Texas voters at 38%, and Paxton was the least popular of the 10 Senate candidates tested across the five polls.

The picture is less settled elsewhere. A Fox local summary of Texas polling, built on data from the Texas Politics Project, describes the contest as a dead heat. Public surveys since Labor Day range from a one-point to a six-point Talarico edge.

The Times/Siena result also depends on who turns out. The poll’s likely electorate leans Democratic, with fewer Trump voters showing up. If the 2024 electorate returned, the race would be a tie.

Alaska: Peltola Ahead, With a Naming Twist

Former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by seven points in the new Times/Siena survey. Alaska uses a top-four primary, and Peltola finished ahead of Sullivan in August. Another pollster, Alaska Survey Research, found a similar edge for her in September, Political Wire reported.

One oddity: a second candidate named Dan Sullivan is on the November ballot. Newsweek noted that the shared name could scramble the math. This time, the Times/Siena poll asked about the incumbent, as he is labeled on the ballot.

Ohio: Data Centers Enter the Debate

In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted by three points. Polls since Labor Day run from a tie to a Brown lead of eight points. A Fox News survey taken Aug. 6-10 had Brown ahead 53% to 45%.

The race has drawn attention for its focus on artificial intelligence infrastructure. In a private memo, the National Republican Senatorial Committee warned that opposition to data centers was hurting Husted, according to Axios, which obtained the document. Brown has run ads tying Husted to the projects.

The Times/Siena poll fits that story. About 3% of Ohio voters named A.I. their top issue, compared with roughly 0.3% in the other four states. Voters also favored Brown by 10 points on A.I. and data centers.

Kansas and Iowa: Tight Races in Deep Red Territory

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Pastor Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee, faces Sen. Roger Marshall, and the Times/Siena poll shows a tie. After Hamilton won the August primary, forecasters shifted the race from safe Republican to likely Republican, the Kansas Press reported.

Other polls diverge. A Nexstar/Emerson College survey found Hamilton ahead 45% to 43%, according to Political Wire. Hamilton also remains little known: 28% of likely voters in the Times/Siena poll had not heard of him.

In Iowa, Hinson leads Turek by one point in the Times/Siena poll, though several other surveys since Labor Day show Turek ahead, including a Marist poll with an eight-point edge.

Why Voters Are Leaning This Way

Two patterns appear across the Senate polls in red states. First, Trump’s standing is weak. His approval rating across the five states is 40%, and 57% view him unfavorably. In the four states the Times polled in June, his ratings have dropped five points since then.

Second, Democrats have fielded candidates who voters see in a favorable light. In all five states, more voters view the Democrat favorably than unfavorably, and the reverse holds for the Republican. Voters in every state said “has good character” fits the Democrat better.

What the Polls Cannot Tell Us

Leading in early October is not the same as winning in November. Polls in Republican-leaning states have often overestimated Democrats in past cycles, and Republicans may win back voters who traditionally back their party as the campaign closes. The GOP also expects to have the money to make its case.

These Senate polls in red states are a snapshot, not a forecast. The final result will depend on who actually votes.