Voters heading into the November 3 elections are focused on their wallets and ready for a shake-up. That is the central message of a new AP-NORC midterms poll released on October 15, 2026, which found that most voters rank the economy and the cost of living among their top concerns, and that about 8 in 10 want substantial change in how the country is run.
Summary
Eighty-five percent of voters call the economy a key issue and 84% say the same about the cost of living. Eight in 10 want major change or total upheaval, and 47% would like Democrats to control the House. President Trump’s approval stands at 36%.
What the AP-NORC Midterms Poll Found
The AP-NORC midterms poll was conducted October 8 to 12 by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. According to the official AP-NORC release, interviewers reached 1,119 adults online and by phone through NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Voters were asked which issues matter most as they decide how to cast a ballot. The economy and the cost of living came out on top by a wide margin, and a clear majority also named health care and the war with Iran.
Economy and Prices Lead the Issue List
Health care was named a top issue by 69% of voters, while 64% pointed to the war with Iran. Immigration and crime each drew 45%. Artificial intelligence landed at 35%, and transgender issues at 12%.
Both parties agree on the top two concerns. The differences show up further down the list. Republican voters were more likely to name crime and immigration, and Democratic voters were more likely to name health care.
The finding fits with other recent research. A Pew Research Center report on the midterms found that 84% of registered voters rated the economy as very important to their vote. That included 82% of Republican supporters and 88% of Democratic supporters, based on a survey fielded September 28 to October 4. The two polls use different wording and samples, so the numbers are not directly comparable, but both put the economy first.
Price pressure has been a steady theme this fall. Newsweek reported that the annual inflation rate reached 3.4 percent in August, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Eight in 10 Voters Want Change
A large majority said the country needs either substantial change or complete and total upheaval in how it is run. Democrats and independents were the most likely to call for upheaval. About half of Democrats and 4 in 10 independents chose that option.
Republicans were less likely to ask for upheaval, but they still want a different direction. Forty-five percent of Republican voters said they would like to see substantial change.
A gloomy view of politics
Mood is part of the picture. Two-thirds of voters feel pessimistic about the state of U.S. politics, and only about 1 in 10 say they feel optimistic. Around half are pessimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party and democracy itself.
Control of Congress and Trump’s Ratings
On the question of who should run Congress, 47% of voters favor Democratic control of the House and 46% favor Democratic control of the Senate. By comparison, 38% would prefer that Republicans keep both chambers. Fifteen percent are unsure, and independents were more likely than partisans to say so.
President Trump’s job approval stands at 36%, with 64% disapproving. His best marks came on crime, where 45% approve. About three-quarters disapprove of his handling of the economy (74%) and the cost of living (79%), and roughly two-thirds disapprove of his work on foreign policy.
Favorable views are limited across the board. About a third of voters view Trump (35%), Vice President JD Vance (35%) and the Republican Party (36%) favorably. Four in 10 view the Democratic Party favorably.
How this compares with an earlier survey
An earlier AP-NORC survey of 2,140 adults, conducted September 24 to 28, measured approval among all adults rather than voters. The Associated Press reported that 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living and 26% approved of his handling of the economy. Because the groups and dates differ, the two results should be read as separate snapshots, not a trend line.
What to Keep in Mind Before the Election
Any midterms poll captures opinion at one moment. With a margin of error near four points, small gaps, such as the one between 46% and 47%, should not be treated as firm leads. The AP-NORC midterms poll also measures preferences, not turnout, and midterm turnout is usually lower than in presidential years. As Pew has noted in earlier work, the people who actually vote can look different from all registered voters.
Even so, the direction is consistent across several surveys. Prices, health care and a desire for change are shaping how voters think about November 3.
Frequently Asked Questions
When was the AP-NORC midterms poll conducted?
The AP-NORC midterms poll ran from October 8 to 12, 2026, and included 1,119 adults interviewed online and by phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Which issues matter most to voters?
The economy (85%) and the cost of living (84%) lead. Health care follows at 69%, and the war with Iran at 64%.
How many voters want change?
About 8 in 10 want substantial change or complete and total upheaval. Among Republicans, 45% want substantial change.
Which party do voters prefer in Congress?
Forty-seven percent favor Democratic control of the House and 46% favor it for the Senate. Thirty-eight percent prefer Republicans to stay in charge of both, and 15% are unsure.
What is President Trump’s approval rating in the poll?
Thirty-six percent approve and 64% disapprove. His strongest issue is crime, at 45% approval.
