The Oregon governor race is shaping up as a close rematch between Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan, and the newest polling shows the two essentially tied. With ballots set to begin reaching mailboxes on Oct. 14, voters in the Portland suburb of Sherwood told The Oregonian/OregonLive that worry about the alternative weighs more on them than excitement about either candidate.

Where the Oregon governor race stands in the polls

A poll commissioned by OPB and conducted by DHM Research surveyed 915 likely voters and found a statistical tie, according to OPB’s reporting. On the first question, 46% chose Drazan and 44% chose Kotek. Third-party candidate Brett Smith drew 3%, and 8% were undecided. When undecided voters were pressed to lean one way, Drazan held 47% to Kotek’s 46%. The margin of error was 3.24 points, so neither candidate has a clear lead.

The same poll measured favorability. Kotek came in at 38%, just one point above President Donald Trump’s 37% among Oregon voters. That matters because Kotek has repeatedly linked Drazan to Trump, hoping his low standing in the state will work in her favor.

Earlier signs pointed the same direction. A June survey released by Drazan’s campaign showed her at 48% and Kotek at 44%, though internal campaign polls deserve extra caution. In July, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “Solid D” to “Likely D,” the Oregon Capital Chronicle reported. On money, OPB found Drazan has raised $11.1 million since January 2025, about $2.5 million less than Kotek.

Sherwood, a small city that mirrors the state

Sherwood, a Washington County city of about 20,000 people, produced the closest result in the 2022 Oregon governor race. Only three votes separated Drazan and Kotek there, while statewide Kotek won 47% to Drazan’s 43.5%.

The city’s party registration looks a lot like the state’s: about 30% Democrats, 25% Republicans and 37% unaffiliated voters. Residents backed the Democratic presidential nominees in 2020 and 2024, yet they also supported Republican nominees for governor in at least four straight elections before 2022. Drazan took the city by that thin margin in the last governor’s contest.

Money concerns sit close to the surface. By 2021, 92% of Sherwood’s working residents held jobs outside the city. The median household income of about $110,000 is higher than the state’s $83,000, but many residents still want better-paying work closer to home. The population has nearly doubled since 2000, while housing construction has not kept pace.

Fear is doing much of the work

University of Oregon political science professor Chandler James told the newspaper that anxiety can motivate voters, but apathy can make turnout harder for campaigns to build. In his view, the candidate who best speaks to voters’ biggest fears may come out ahead.

Adam Bienvenu, an unaffiliated voter who owns Sherwood Bookstore, said he disagrees with parts of Kotek’s record but plans to vote for her because he does not share Drazan’s conservative views. Several other Kotek supporters showed only mild enthusiasm and said they would be wary of a Republican governor while Trump is in office.

On the other side, Roy Ray, who works part time at a hardware store, said rising rent pushed him out of a mobile home park. He is tired of tax increases, though he admitted he has not studied Drazan’s record closely. Several Drazan backers said they were voting against Kotek more than for the challenger. Others, including former school board member Peggy Stevens, spoke warmly of Drazan and called her “very sharp.”

How the candidates frame the choice

In the Oregon governor race, Kotek has made opposition to the Trump administration a centerpiece of her campaign. Drazan has taken a careful approach, appearing to keep some distance from the president while criticizing only his least popular moves. She has said she is personally pro-life but would respect Oregon’s abortion-rights laws.

After winning the May Republican primary with about 40% of the vote, Drazan shifted from partisan messaging toward her background and working-class roots. She has since released an agenda, but it remains unclear how she would work with a Legislature expected to stay under Democratic control.

Kotek’s first term included state spending on housing infrastructure, behavioral health, education and social services. Yet housing production, school outcomes, mental health services and economic indicators have stayed weak. Kotek recently said she supports a statewide pause on data centers, and Drazan backs one too.

In the first televised debate on Thursday, both candidates closed by warning voters about the other. Kotek said conditions would worsen under Drazan, while Drazan said the state’s decline has deepened under Kotek. Both campaigns had earlier agreed to fewer debates than in 2022, the Capital Chronicle noted, when the candidates met three times.

Dates Oregon voters should know

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